{"runCount":6,"computedAt":"2026-04-28T09:27:55.322Z","outcomeDistribution":{"total":6,"survived":{"count":4,"pct":67},"bankrupt":{"count":2,"pct":33},"resigned":{"count":0,"pct":0},"h4Assessment":"H4 REJECTED — Majority of agents avoided bankruptcy. Decision quality matters."},"bankruptcyDistribution":{"distribution":[{"quarter":"2006-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":"Amazon deal expires"},{"quarter":"2006-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2006-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2006-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2007-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2007-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2007-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2007-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":"Credit markets tighten"},{"quarter":"2008-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":"Recession begins"},{"quarter":"2008-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2008-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":"Lehman collapses"},{"quarter":"2008-Q4","count":1,"macroEvent":"Holiday collapse"},{"quarter":"2009-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":"Recession trough"},{"quarter":"2009-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2009-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2009-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2010-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2010-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":"IPO window opens"},{"quarter":"2010-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2010-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2011-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2011-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2011-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2011-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":"Second IPO fails"},{"quarter":"2012-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2012-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2012-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":"Debt maturities begin"},{"quarter":"2012-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2013-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2013-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":"Storch resignation trigger"},{"quarter":"2013-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2013-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2014-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2014-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":"Amazon same-day delivery"},{"quarter":"2014-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2014-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2015-Q1","count":1,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2015-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":"Debt maturity wall"},{"quarter":"2015-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2015-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2016-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":"BRU separation window"},{"quarter":"2016-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2016-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2016-Q4","count":0,"macroEvent":"Final restructuring window"},{"quarter":"2017-Q1","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2017-Q2","count":0,"macroEvent":null},{"quarter":"2017-Q3","count":0,"macroEvent":"Historical bankruptcy"}],"peakQuarter":"2008-Q4","peakMacroEvent":"Holiday collapse","concentration":"100% of bankruptcies in top 3 quarters","top3Quarters":[{"quarter":"2008-Q4","count":1,"macroEvent":"Holiday collapse"},{"quarter":"2015-Q1","count":1,"macroEvent":null}],"interpretation":"Failure clusters around 2008-Q4 (Holiday collapse). 100% of all bankruptcies occur in the top 3 quarters — strongly suggesting macro causation over decision quality."},"decisionVariance":{"ranked":[{"id":"D004","quarter":"2007-Q4","trigger":"Credit markets tightening — last clean refinancing window before potential crisis","variances":{"ebitda":18.63,"ecomRevShare":0.11,"digitalCapability":7.07,"cash":111803388.07},"totalVariance":111803413.88,"sampleSize":6},{"id":"D017","quarter":"2016-Q4","trigger":"Final window — debt unsustainable, lenders circling, pre-bankruptcy options must be assessed now","variances":{"ebitda":50,"ecomRevShare":1.3,"digitalCapability":8.93,"cash":377.49},"totalVariance":437.72,"sampleSize":4},{"id":"D015","quarter":"2015-Q2","trigger":"Debt maturity wall — $400M+ matures 2016, lenders demanding concessions, restructuring inevitable","variances":{"ebitda":67.67,"ecomRevShare":34.32,"digitalCapability":43.73,"cash":282.5},"totalVariance":428.22,"sampleSize":4},{"id":"D002","quarter":"2006-Q3","trigger":"Annual capital allocation review — combo store roll-out vs. digital vs. debt reduction","variances":{"ebitda":18.93,"ecomRevShare":53.15,"digitalCapability":66.62,"cash":230.41},"totalVariance":369.12,"sampleSize":6},{"id":"D016","quarter":"2016-Q1","trigger":"BRU separation — PE owners considering partial BRU IPO as last viable asset monetisation window","variances":{"ebitda":74.04,"ecomRevShare":5.74,"digitalCapability":9.6,"cash":235.52},"totalVariance":324.9,"sampleSize":4},{"id":"D009","quarter":"2010-Q2","trigger":"IPO window opens — equity markets recovering, S-1 filed, pricing assessment required","variances":{"ebitda":15.68,"ecomRevShare":5.67,"digitalCapability":10.3,"cash":268.33},"totalVariance":299.98,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D010","quarter":"2011-Q1","trigger":"Amazon Prime crosses 20M members — digital threat now existential, strategy escalation required","variances":{"ebitda":52.29,"ecomRevShare":2.4,"digitalCapability":8,"cash":184.39},"totalVariance":247.08,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D005","quarter":"2008-Q3","trigger":"Lehman collapse — GFC emergency response required immediately","variances":{"ebitda":102.14,"ecomRevShare":5.3,"digitalCapability":7.72,"cash":124.51},"totalVariance":239.67,"sampleSize":6},{"id":"D011","quarter":"2011-Q4","trigger":"Second IPO attempt fails — sovereign debt crisis, refinancing alternatives urgently needed","variances":{"ebitda":44.54,"ecomRevShare":5.85,"digitalCapability":5.24,"cash":122.47},"totalVariance":178.11,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D001","quarter":"2006-Q1","trigger":"Amazon exclusivity deal terminates — e-commerce strategy required","variances":{"ebitda":29.01,"ecomRevShare":4.02,"digitalCapability":12.13,"cash":78},"totalVariance":123.16,"sampleSize":6},{"id":"D013","quarter":"2013-Q2","trigger":"Leadership continuity — three failed IPOs, board pressure, strategic drift visible — stay or resign?","variances":{"ebitda":43.63,"ecomRevShare":6.59,"digitalCapability":4.9,"cash":55.64},"totalVariance":110.76,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D007","quarter":"2009-Q1","trigger":"Post-GFC real estate — Circuit City and Linens 'n Things bankruptcies create opportunity","variances":{"ebitda":19.39,"ecomRevShare":0.7,"digitalCapability":9.52,"cash":69.98},"totalVariance":99.59,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D014","quarter":"2014-Q2","trigger":"Amazon launches same-day delivery — physical retail model under direct, accelerating assault","variances":{"ebitda":18.6,"ecomRevShare":6.11,"digitalCapability":8.13,"cash":48.48},"totalVariance":81.32,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D006","quarter":"2008-Q4","trigger":"Holiday season 2008 — pricing strategy under acute recession conditions","variances":{"ebitda":45.72,"ecomRevShare":0.79,"digitalCapability":6.05,"cash":28.53},"totalVariance":81.09,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D012","quarter":"2012-Q3","trigger":"Store estate review — 585 stores, rising lease costs, declining traffic, Amazon accelerating","variances":{"ebitda":12.25,"ecomRevShare":6.51,"digitalCapability":8.89,"cash":49.09},"totalVariance":76.73,"sampleSize":5},{"id":"D003","quarter":"2007-Q2","trigger":"Babies'R'Us review — significantly outperforming toys division on margin","variances":{"ebitda":16.27,"ecomRevShare":5.57,"digitalCapability":9.75,"cash":45.04},"totalVariance":76.63,"sampleSize":6},{"id":"D008","quarter":"2009-Q3","trigger":"Recovery signals — strategic review and IPO preparation assessment","variances":{"ebitda":8,"ecomRevShare":1.05,"digitalCapability":7.48,"cash":48.48},"totalVariance":65.01,"sampleSize":5}],"highestVarianceDecision":{"id":"D004","quarter":"2007-Q4","trigger":"Credit markets tightening — last clean refinancing window before potential crisis","variances":{"ebitda":18.63,"ecomRevShare":0.11,"digitalCapability":7.07,"cash":111803388.07},"totalVariance":111803413.88,"sampleSize":6},"interpretation":"Decision D004 (2007-Q4) shows the highest variance across agents — this is where rational choice diverges most from the historical baseline."},"mandateClustering":{"sampleSize":6,"themes":[{"theme":"debt reduction","count":6,"pct":100},{"theme":"digital","count":6,"pct":100},{"theme":"BRU / assets","count":6,"pct":100},{"theme":"operational","count":5,"pct":83},{"theme":"survival","count":4,"pct":67},{"theme":"IPO / exit","count":4,"pct":67},{"theme":"growth","count":4,"pct":67}],"dominantTheme":"debt reduction","interpretation":"\"debt reduction\" is the dominant mandate theme (100% of agents). Followed by \"digital\" (100%). Strong convergence — agents reading this scenario overwhelmingly prioritise the same concern."},"consistencyVsOutcome":{"r":0.585,"sampleSize":6,"interpretation":"r=0.585 — Positive correlation. Agents that stayed true to their mandate survived longer. Consistency matters."},"blindVsEnlightened":{"pairedAgents":0,"interpretation":"No paired blind/enlightened runs yet. Enlightened mode unlocks after at least one blind run per agent."},"scenarios":{"TRU-2006":{"runCount":6,"outcomeDistribution":{"total":6,"survived":{"count":4,"pct":67},"bankrupt":{"count":2,"pct":33},"resigned":{"count":0,"pct":0},"h4Assessment":"H4 REJECTED — Majority of agents avoided bankruptcy. Decision quality matters."}}}}